The Gaza Crisis: Hurtling Toward Disaster
By Nicholas S. Kass
November 5th, 2023
In the wake of Hamas’ 7 October terrorist attack on Israeli civilians and the Israeli government’s declaration of retaliatory war in Hamas-controlled Gaza, the Middle East is on the verge of a disaster. Already, the situation is affecting key interests of the United States, Israel’s principal backer, in the region and elsewhere.
The fallout also includes potential spillover effects on US equities in Europe, where the war between Russia and Ukraine—and indirectly against the US and NATO—rages to catastrophic effect.
There is still time to salvage something from the situation, but the room for maneuver is shrinking by the day.
The Hamas terror attack and the war in Gaza understandably evoke strong, visceral emotions. In America, these emotions are having an impact on Washington’s policy debates, as they did in generating post-9/11 policies in the Middle East and Afghanistan, and subsequently, in the fight against the barbarity of the so-called “caliphate” of ISIS.
However, in this respect, the long American experience and record of errors after 9/11 are a cautionary tale. They remind us that for any nation—including the United States—it is important to keep emotions and domestic politics generally from warping or foreclosing the ability to perceive and understand basic realities and developments abroad, which is the crucial foundation upon which wise policymaking must rest.
Israel’s Dilemma
Israel faces a grave strategic dilemma. On the one hand, it is clear that the Israeli government must respond vigorously against the Hamas perpetrators; failure to do so would be to break faith with the Israeli people and perhaps irreparably jeopardize the security of the Israeli state.
On the other hand, it appears that Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas, in what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated will be a long war, is already undermining Israel’s broader strategic equities given the high death toll in Gaza—reportedly 8,000 and counting, as of 31 October.
These concerns may have initially led to disagreements within the Israeli government over whether and how far to push into Gaza, delaying the ground invasion.
Nevertheless, the Netanyahu government apparently has come to the conclusion that a general offensive is the only option. One reason for this may well be domestic political considerations including Netanyahu’s own dim political prospects.
Some opinion polls suggest 80 percent of Israelis blame Netanyahu for Israel’s failure to anticipate the Hamas attack—an intelligence failure so comprehensive that it casts doubt on Israel’s abilities to target Hamas in Gaza without further massive damage and civilian deaths.
Netanyahu may calculate that a long war will put off the day of political reckoning for him. Nevertheless, that day will come eventually, as Israel’s diminished international stature becomes more apparent. In any event, such political calculations could lead Netanyahu to ignore or downplay the likely reaction to his actions in many parts of the world.
Regional Implications
Israel’s attacks in Gaza, with the high prospect of more destruction to come, are scuttling what had been a growing Israeli rapprochement with Sunni Muslim, Arab states in the Middle East.
Israel’s attacks are also damaging its relations with Sunni Turkey, a rising regional power which shares with Arab states and peoples a strong sympathy for the Palestinians.
According to the New York Times on 31 October, “it became evident to U.S. officials that Israeli leaders believed mass civilian casualties were an acceptable price in the military campaign.” Clearly, that is not the case among Muslim countries. The reaction in the region against Israeli war policy toward Gaza and the Palestinians generally likely will spur cooperative efforts in the region and abroad to isolate Israel diplomatically, economically, and potentially involve military deployments as part of an international effort to relieve civilian suffering in Gaza.
Moreover, perceptions of Israeli indifference to the plight of civilians invites condemnation from, and opportunities to demonstrate solidarity among, great powers Russia and China, and others who see such indifference as evidence of Israeli and US perfidy. All told, this would raise the stakes and increase the risks of confrontation.
Meanwhile, there is much condemnation in US and Israel toward Iran, Hamas’ principal backer, with US politicians openly calling for military action against Tehran. In that event, it is likely that Israel would be confronted with attacks from another Iranian client, Lebanese Hizballah, opening a second front on Israel’s northern border that could further destabilize Lebanon. Moreover, US troops in Iraq and Syria, already facing attack from elements sympathetic to Iran, could come under more fire, generating increasingly strong US military responses that could eventually embroil Washington in yet another de facto regional war.
The Key Turkish Angle
Turkey is likely to become a more assertive presence as the crisis continues. Ankara has condemned the Israeli civilian deaths from the 7 October Hamas attack. Nevertheless, in late October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a blistering speech at a massive rally in Istanbul, castigating Israel as a war criminal for the nature of its response in Gaza and blaming the United States as well for supporting Israel’s offensive. Days earlier, he described Hamas, which Turkey does not recognize as a terrorist group, as engaged in legitimate struggle.
Erdogan’s return to harsh rhetoric against Israel marks a change for a man who until 7 October had been working assiduously to repair Turkish-Israeli ties, which had been damaged in the wake of Israel’s “Operation Cast Lead” against in Gaza 15 years ago.
Erdogan’s effort to rally Sunni Muslims against Netanyahu reflect his deep convictions and probably had several aims, including exerting pressure on Israel and the US to pursue a cease-fire in Gaza, and promoting Turkish aspirations for a regional leadership role by demonstrating Ankara’s willingness to confront Israel and the US. Erdogan probably also wants to increase Turkish civilizing influence over Sunni Hamas at the expense of Shia Iran, which is Hamas’ principal backer and an ages-old strategic competitor to Turkey in the region.
Erdogan’s willingness to stake out positions that offend Washington’s sensibilities reflects the widespread conviction in Turkey and elsewhere that the US has been the principal source of instability in the Middle East since the dawn of the 21st century, is displaying incompetent leadership in various theaters since 2021, and is a declining power. Turks are acutely aware that as a candidate for President, Joe Biden declared that he would work with the Turkish opposition to bring down Erdogan—which could not fail to be understood as a call for a coup d’etat, Biden’s explicit protestations to the contrary notwithstanding. The Biden Administration has sought to modify some of its anti-Erdogan convictions since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in February 2022 in a bid to win the support of NATO ally Turkey for expanding the Alliance as it confronts Russia, with which Turkey has carefully nurtured ties despite the war. This probably restricts the Biden team’s ability to criticize Ankara regarding its stance on Hamas.
Nevertheless, the perception in Ankara that permanent Washington has long failed to take core Turkish equities in the Middle East and elsewhere into account, and the potential for Congressional efforts to embarrass the Administration and prod it to take a more antagonistic stance toward Turkey could further threaten NATO expansion and cohesion.
Pressure on Turkey regarding Hamas might increase Ankara’s reluctance to support NATO membership for Sweden, particularly given Swedish tolerance of the Marxist origin, terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—long Turkey’s primary security threat.
Moreover, an intramural NATO dispute with Turkey over Sweden would come just as some Allied governments, facing rising pressure from domestic populist movements, are already beginning quietly to consider recalibrating their policies in the wake of the abject failure of the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.
Terrorism vs. Terrorism
Nick with a Kurdish Sufi leader in Cizre, Turkey on the border with Syria
More broadly, US policy in another part of the Middle East undercuts Washington’s effort to exact condemnation of Hamas’ terrorism. As far as the Turks are concerned, the US has completely undermined its case for moral leadership due to its support for the PKK’s elements in northeastern Syria.
Most Turks look at US support for PKK proxies as a sign of outright strategic hostility, which colors Turkish security policy in virtually every other respect and direction.
Ostensibly a partnership aimed at eliminating local ISIS remnants—legacies of the instability generated by the disastrous Iraq war—Washington’s de facto abetting of the PKK’s impositions and secularist-revolutionary objectives in a region of more traditionally-minded people threatens stability.
Moreover, it might actually be sustaining, rather than eliminating the threat of a local militant reaction.
The PKK’s suppression of legitimate alternatives to its dominance in northeastern Syria probably encourages some locals to turn to more radical militant organizations, whether ISIS or others.
Western media, NGOs, and governments tend to downplay or ignore concerns about the PKK, often portraying the PKK’s Syrian elements as promoting the latest fashion in Western values. In fact, the PKK routinely threatens and suppresses Syrian Kurds and Arabs–including indigenous Christians–who reject the PKK’s secularist ideology and power interests.
The PKK also engages in kidnappings and forced “recruitment” of Kurdish children into PKK ranks.
Moreover, the PKK threatens the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq—another key US partner in the region.
The PKK has long sought to undermine and overthrow the traditional social, Sufi/Sunni religious, and political structure that, along with Kurdish identity, are the root of the KRG’s stability, political authority, and legitimacy.
The PKK’s prominence in Syria also spurs Turkey to consider intervening militarily as it has on several occasions in recent years, and to sustain a Turkish presence there.
This, in turn raises the prospect of an inadvertent, accidental clash between US forces and Turkish soldiers operating against the local PKK.
Outlook
Some commentators have suggested that the Hamas attack on 7 October was Israel’s 9/11.
If so, then the United States has an obligation to share its experiences and work with Israel, to help it avoid duplicating Washington’s enduring strategic blunders of the post-9/11 era, and abjure policies that whatever their intent are counterproductive, destabilizing, and destructive.
A failure by Washington to do so would be an abdication of its responsibility to safeguard US interests not only in the Middle East, but in Europe and elsewhere.
–30–
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Nicholas Spyridon Kass is Executive Director for International Corporate Affairs at the Alexandrion Group, based near Bucharest, Romania.
He is also Senior Fellow for European Affairs at the Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC.
Mr. Kass has over thirty years of foreign policy experience with the United States Government (retiring January 2021), as an award-winning analyst, reporter, intelligence collector, diplomat, policy manager, and leader.
He was Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations at the U.S. Department of State (2020-2021), and twice Director for European Affairs (2019-2020, 1999-2001) and Director for Intelligence Programs (2006-2008) at the White House/National Security Council.
He also served as Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Europe and senior analyst for Aegean/Eastern Mediterranean and Kurdish issues at the National Intelligence Council (2018-2019), and as a team chief for Legislative Affairs (2004-2006), liaising with the U.S. Congress.
As Deputy Political Counselor (2001-2003) and Political Officer (1995-1998) at the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, Turkey, Mr. Kass was the Mission’s point officer for developing key relationships with leading politicians, activists, academics, and military and religious leaders.
He also served at the Central Intelligence Agency, including as Intelligence Briefer to the Director of Central Intelligence, and was awarded for unique contributions to the CIA HUMINT mission.
Mr. Kass holds a J.D. from the Columbus School of Law, Catholic University of America, a Master of Arts in Government from Georgetown University, and a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from DePaul University.
He speaks Turkish and Kurdish.
Comments 39
A solid analysis, void of rhetoric, that I see as an important primer for any discussion on the middle east quagmire. I 100% agree with the “outlook” section – let’s learn from history so that we don’t repeat it, where we haven’t executed well in the past. Thank you for a great educational read.
Congratulations Mr. Kass. Thank you for telling the people the truth, the problem is the Palestinian voices in the US are bigger and stronger than the Jewish voices. I see that Mr. Kass is a Catholic, so he knows the truth, and he knows how it will all END. Obama and his wife are back in the stoplight looking for more millions and he according to Biden is in charge of A.I and he put Kamala in charge. Lol!!!!!!! The Muslin population is growing in America and Europe and sad to say they are taking over because we have become complacent and did not Vote them out years ago. History does repeat itself, but of coarse our young have no idea about History, no one seems to have taught them that. Our children are going to Schools that are run by people like Hilary Clinton and the last Mayor of Chicago, so they are teaching the young Left Wing policies that have taken us to the brink of War. I know we that believe are protected and it will be what God has planned not what they want. Israel is the house of the Lord, even though the will destroy it, the house of the Lord will stand. Sad that our young have no clue about History or the truth. Keep telling the truth John. God Bless you and your family.
I am a Greek Orthodox Christian but we, too, search out truths
Certainly wasn’t expecting an apologia of Erdogan today!
This assessment is interesting, honest, and guided by US interests. I’m curious, though, about your opinion on the following: Egypt’s and Jordan’s current relationship with Israel, while unpopular with their population, do serve their defense interests. The Abraham accords are bringing the UAE, Morocco, and others in as well due to fear of Iran. Saudi participation de jure [perhaps not de facto] appear to be delayed by the Iraeli/US response to 10/7. Yet, while unpopular, joining appears to be in the interest of the Saudi’s as well.
Turkey is more complex with concerns about Russia, the Caucasus [also volatile], resource rights in the Eastern Med, and a growing cooperation between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. Is the recent public switch [again] to hostility toward Israel just a pose for public consumption and internal political advantage or a serious change in Turkish policy? Erdogan will not be in power forever and Turkey needs the support of the US in many areas far more than it needs HAMAS. I’m hardly an expert [you are], what’s your feeling on the long term [say 5-10 years out] prospects?
Excellent analysis of the geopolitical situation! It is clear that the Biden administration is wavering back and forth on the Israeli/Hamas situation and the party politics are muddling their response. I agree with those who say it is time to deport anyone supporting Hamas’ terrorism that is here on a visa, as senator Rubio has proposed. The marching and graffiti at the White House yesterday is evidence of progressive Democrat organizing to put pressure for a cease fire that Israel will never accept, as this Hamas attack was too grievous to the safety of Israel, and Israel is correct to bring it too an end. The broader Palestinian problem is one the Arabs have enabled against Israel since it became a state after WWII.
The progressive elements supporting Hamas as being “justified” and pushing for a cease-fire is evidence of their desire to enable use of the casualties (which is the Hamas’ modus operandi) to force Western governments to stop Israel from completely destroying Hamas, which is necessary for the protection of the Israeli population going forward. Israel wisely has separated northern and southern Gaza to provided a place for Gaza Palestinians who do not support Hamas to find some safety (although Hamas will seek to undercut that furiously). If Arab countries and Turkey truly care about the issue of Palestinian civilians safety, they should absorb refugees like Poland, Romania, etc. have done for Ukraine. If not, they have no right to decry the loss of life. More likely, they realize they’d be importing some Hamas indoctrination into their own internal politics. The weakness of the Biden foreign policies is on clear display yet again, enabling Iran, Russia and China.
Well said.
I urge those in Chicago to visit the Graham Foundation at 4 W Burton. In a prescient exhibition, there are videos and art addressing Golan, Syria and the region, obviously arranged before October 7.
On another topic, an artist from Berlin created large maps on Manchester, NH addressing quality of life. Imaginative, beautiful in her execution.
thank you Geraldine Conrad
Seems, but seems a tad bit skewed towards Turkey
1) Israel considered mass casualties acceptable? When Israel delayed response for weeks to reduce civilian casualties? And NY times as a source?
2) Many surrounding countries had no problem with civilian deaths – as long as they were innocent Israeli citizens that were slaughtered by Hamas.
3) Erdogan was working assiduously to repair ties w Israel? Really? He has been spewing hate towards Israel for YEARS!
You may have some impressive credentials sir, but this reads a bit too much like a Turkish govt PR piece
you owe him an apology. as far as I can see, there is one propagandist here. look into the mirror
I am not a propogandist. Nor do I work for a consultancy that has any connections to govts, or Israeli or otherwise.
I doubt his presentation, and his facts seem skewed, and my opinion has not changed.
I do not doubt he is a smart, capable, honest man, and I have nothing bad to say about your brother. But the piece still comes off to me like a promotional PR piece given that Turkey and Erdogan are very anti-Israel and and increasingly anti-western.
You could not be more mistaken. This article nails it petty much on the button. How do I know? My lifelong best friend has lived in Jerusalem for 55 years. She is not Jewish OR Muslim. Your “observations” are actually very insulting and show a lot of ignorance of the facts.
Interesting overview yet I thin it does not address several core issues. Fundamental truths not included: are the world’s dependence on oil and its unequal dispersion and the need for Mideast regional dictators to have an evil entity and or people to blame for their own inadequacies. The latter were kept in check with the 2 superpowers for decades and 2 strong regional powers Iran and Iraq locked in an interminable war. We clumsily broke the latter as are leaders got sucked into destroying Iraq.
Energy independence is critical for the US to expand basic concepts of personal freedoms without bending to the wims of dictators. Second, Israel and the Jews will always give the regional dictators and or oligarchs the relief valve to shift the blame for their peoples suffering to hatred of some people no matter who. Rationally, why would any country or kingdom initiate war spill blood and lose treasure for no real economic gain? The land that is being fought over contains no inherent mineral or strategic value. Rather, it sadly boils down to the regional dictators using proxies as a blood sport on a people they find despicable.
Good points.
Very good points!
Yes, when Biden signed all those executive orders on day one, it was the beginning of the end. Energy independence is KEY to reestablishing our power.
Very well done, Mr. Kass, and like your brother, your Greek ancestors are no doubt proud of you.
My biggest takeaway was Erdogan’s thoughts that “the US has been the principal source of instability in the Middle East since the dawn of the 21st century, is displaying incompetent leadership in various theaters since 2021, and is a declining power”. Unfortunately, this is getting harder and harder to argue.
bingo.
Spot on!
I heard a humorous (to some) solution to this problem/ conflict. We give Palestine/Israel back to Palestinians and Florida to the Israelis!?
Brother Kass, why do you think Israel had such a monumental intelligence failure? The world has been told there is no better intelligence operation than that of Israel’s. I would have loved to hear your thoughts on that on a more granular level. Maybe later on in this process. I hope so!
It was an inside job, a deliberate “intelligence failure”. No way Israel would not have known about this. There is proof coming out about this.
Thank you Νίκο for a most educational and in depth assessment of our middle east (μαλακιες) miscalculations, which appear to be unending with our current administration in DC. Θεός να βάλει το χέρι Του!!
Nick Kass on the international situation is a a great resource. His experience in geopolitics for the state department is immeasurable. We are lucky to get his insight into the goings-on in Israel, Palestine, Turkey, and the rest of the Middle East. An excellent column, well written, well thought out. moving forward I can only hope that some common sense and good policy occurs in the White House and Congress. If not, we are doomed sadly to placate the Middle East after the energy independence policies of the previous administration were trashed. Our national reserve is low and yet the voters on the left, continue to support these fools errands.
I can really appreciate Mr. Kass’s in-depth political analysis of the Middle East tensions and Israeli/Palestinians writ large. I majored in political science and world history during college and ironically, my student advisor was Dr. Sheikh.
Maybe I am over-simplifying it, but to me, the Middle East also has its Swamp in a sea of sand.
Here in this country, obviously we have the older politicians from both parties who want to hold on to their power and insider stock options at any cost, often making their deals with the Devil himself.
Middle East influencers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Hamas, Sunnis, Shias, Arabs, Jews-all fighting for control over the lucrative weapons contracts that will protect them from their centuries-old tribal enemies trying to separate them for their more lucrative oil reserves.
Ergodan, the Crown Prince, Assad, the Ayatollah and of course the “Billionaire’s Club” of Hamas leaders who profit immensely while their people live in abject poverty.
Words like genocidal monsters are used to describe ISRAEL for daring to retaliate against Hamas for slaughtering innocent Jews for no other reason than to perpetuate their stated goal of wiping Israel from the face of the map.
And the power brokers who are sticking their noses in Israel’s business-the UN imparticular-have no say whatsoever in how Israel is to deal with this most recent affront to their peaceful, loving Jewish population.
And Joe can fret about lo[owersing the American Arab voters, but it doesn’t change the fact that he, like all of the Presidents before him have committed total support in however Israel decides to prosecute this war against Hamas barbarians and Hezbollah terrorists.
But, make no mistake; this is another example of a bunch of old men fighting on that international stage to keep hold of their power and standing in the global affairs that is paid for with the blood and oil of the 1000s of tribal clans who have been fighting each other for centuries.
The New World Order is just another word for Deep State, Swamp; whatever is the appropriate description for men who are willing to watch people die as collateral damage to their insatiable thirst for power.
Quoting that Guardian article about Operation Cast Lead is an interesting choice. When it begins by stating “After its unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, Israel turned the area into the biggest open-door prison on Earth. The two hallmarks of Israel’s treatment of Gaza since then have been mendacity and the utmost brutality towards civilians.” . . . I have questions. On its face, it is not much of a prison if the “door” is “open”. I assume the author meant “open-air prison” as the Hamas propagandists (and fellow travelers) like to describe the territory they’ve ‘governed’ since 2007.
As for broader Middle Eastern escalation, I find it noteworthy that Hezbollah head Nasrallah, in his speech on Friday–sandwiched between the usual bellicose threats to Israel and the US–denied Hezbollah and Iranian involvement in 10/7. Erdogan is going to Erdogan, and much like ‘the Arab Street’ he will continue to inveigh and threaten and denounce, but likely won’t act in any meaningful way.
I’d like to see the US stay out of Israel’s way while continuing to rhetorically support our key regional ally. Allow Israel to complete the destruction of Hamas, or pursue whatever other military, diplomatic, information, and/or economic policies Israel believes is in their national interest and the security of her citizens. Kind of like a sovereign nation is supposed to.
Keep up the good work, I appreciate these articles. John Kass was the only reason I held on to my Tribune subscription as long as I did. Turned out to be too long, but live and learn.
This is an excellent unemotional high level analysis. But I have some questions.
First, I disagree with Mr. Kass, in saying that October 7th was the equal of our 9/11. October 7th is a true existential attack. 9/11, as horrible as it was, was not an existential attack – in the true meaning of the word – to the US. That is not the case with Oct 7th. If one compares the Israeli population with the US, the 1400 Israeli deaths would be equal to almost 50 000 US deaths … in one day. That does not even include the injured and wounded which may equal to 100K proportionately. So I ask Mr. Kass, what then would be the US response given such enormous casualties? Or what then would be an appropriate response given the same? No doubt what Israel is doing now is fraught with danger. What would be the alternatives? What then would Mr. Kass suggest Israel should have done in response to such a massive terrorist attack resulting in such enormous casualties? Should Israel just have said “never mind?” What should have the US advised? Better yet, what would YOU have advised in the face of a (truly) existential attack?
I suspect that Hamas knew everything Mr. Kass laid out prior to their attack (after all that seems to be their game plan): Israel would launch a massive counter attack, resulting in huge civilian casualties, eventually resulting in world condemnation. In fact this is exactly how it now appears to be playing out. Like Viet Nam which was lost in the halls of Congress, I suspect Hamas is betting on that as well: Israel will lose this battle in the halls of Congress as well and in many other far off legislative halls. Again, what would Mr. Kass suggest. Given his expertise, what should Israel have done after the attacks?
I wish Nick spoke Arabic as well.
What a detailed appraisal of the mess in the Middle East. Thank you for the education.
John,
You should read Bibi’s autobiography. You will get an understanding of the Israeli perspective from their side. I enjoyed reading your brother’s column, but Israel didn’t start this. They have no other friends but us, and with Biden in charge, I wonder how long that will last. They must be allowed to defend themselves. If they don’t, who will?
Interesting how Israel was thinking Putin might be their ally as they were hesitant to align with Ukraine. However the Hamas attacks – and Putin’s subsequent response – have cured Israel of that delusion. So yes. It comes down to the US once again. But with the old doddering confused Biden in charge, who knows how that “friendship” plays out. I’m betting ole Joe starts his “walk back” sometime in the next week or so.
I have great respect for Nicholas Kass for his knowledge of the region and his service to the country. I agree that the Turks feel betrayed by the US support for elements of the PKK in Syria. The PKK is clearly a terrorist group. That being said, I think he is completely wrong in his analysis of Erdogan. Erdogan was only playing lip service to repairing relations with Israel. Erdogan comes from the Muslim Brotherhood and has openly allowed HAMAS to operate within Turkey. He sponsored the Mavi Marmara incident. Erdogan is not interested in a real peace with Israel, rather he wants to see Israel destroyed.
Israel’s destruction of HAMAS will likely cause a further rift in relations with Jordan but not with the Gulf countries. Leaders in the UAE, and more importantly, Saudi Arabia, have been highly critical of HAMAS and see the Muslim Brotherhood, from which HAMAS sprung, as a serious threat. They have pivoted towards Israel because they are hoping it will help protect them from Iran. That has not changed.
Finally, I dispute the claim that US politicians have called for attacking Iran. No one of any importance has done so. They have called for re-imposing sanctions on Iran. They have advocated for striking Iran if Iran continues to sponsor attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria. They should be doing that. Our weak response to attacks on our forces is a sig of weakness and invites further attacks.
Some have taken remarks by some out of context. The worst example is the claim that Nikki Haley called for an attack on Iran. That is simply false. A fair reading of what she said makes it clear that she was referring to wiping out HAMAS, not Iran. That was good advice. HAMAS is a death cult and is intent on genocide. There is no chance of peace in the region as long as HAMAS remains in power. There may be some negative consequences. A patient who has gangrene in a leg needs to have the limb removed. It will leave him with a disability but a failure to perform the surgery will leave him dead.
Good clarification Aaron!
Back in the 1990’s, Obama, Rahm Emanuel and Rep. Jan Schakowsky were accused of acting as agents of Turkey. That faded fast upon Obama’s Presidency. How about that?
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/whos-afraid-of-sibel-edmonds/
As some of the comments indicate, there may be a fundamental error in Mr. Kass’ article, one more of omission than commission, that of the importance of an ideological struggle. Hamas’ charter is the destruction of Israel, and while it is not possible for Hamas itself to accomplish this end, its attack was to force Muslim nations to choose between Islam and political accommodation. The attack by Hamas, because it is the government of Gaza, is a declaration of war, with all the implications involved. The reactions by many nations reveals the lack of understanding in these two critical areas: ideological wars are very different from wars over territory and “a declaration of war” commits an entire people to a conflict. Civilians no longer have the same rights as they would in aa police action. It almost (almost!) makes no difference that Hamas allegedly killed Palestinians trying to escape the war (and it is a war) or that the large majority of Palestinians were quite happy with the killings of Israeli citizens, non-combatants. Ideological wars are “won” only by the destruction of the opponent. Territorial wars are solved by diplomacy. The distinction becomes clearer in comparing the conflict in Ukraine with the one in Gaza. That the world wants Israel to exert proportionality indicates the world does not understand the meaning of the term. The survival of Hamas means an unending conflict. Its destruction means great international turmoil, but as it is clear the surrounding Muslim nations, Arabs, Turks, Egyptians, Jordanians, and others do not want Palestinians in their lands, and that Israel must survive as an independent and Jewish nation/homeland, international stresses will not last for years, much less decades. Additionally, by destroying Gaza (and not going on about how the area will be governed), the Palestinians on the West Bank may be more inclined to seek a peaceful accommodation with Israel. Finally, while it likely is true Netanyahu may wish to remain in power because he believes in his ideology and policies, he is less important than the survival of Israel and a higher level of security for that nation. The ultimate issue, not discussed, is the extension of the ideological conflict between the values of Islam and the West.
Excellent analysis Michael! So true.
Nick is a voice of reason the thought in the midst of media mis-information and propaganda. I always enjoy hearing him on your podcasts.
My lifelong best friend has lived in Jerusalem for 55 years. From the inside, she believes as I do that there was no real intelligence failure, but that Israel allowed this to happen. Good blog here by Nick. Netanyahu needs to go – he is a hugely corrupt politician. Here, allowing voices like Tlaib to be heard is beyond nauseating. The “four” as they are called are hateful blind people. Make no mistake, the goal of Muslim extremists is to destroy anyone who does not become one. On another note. Biden is not running the country – Obama is, behind the scenes. His arrogance is disgusting. He is a Muslim at heart and believes as the extremists do, he just won’t ever admit it.
It is not a diplomat’s place, I suppose, to “tell” elected leaders what to do, but only to advise them to keep in mind all the “equities” (that is, interests) at play. Fine. The ultimate conclusion here, highly qualified, is that “the United States has an obligation to share its experiences and work with Israel, to help it avoid duplicating Washington’s enduring strategic blunders of the post-9/11 era, and abjure policies that . . . are counterproductive . . . and destructive.”
Is Israel going to mount an invasion akin to that of Iraq and Afghanistan? No. The situation in Gaza is not comparable.
Should Israel do nothing in response to the 10/7 attacks? No, but the author does not say just how Israel should modulate its response. Not very helpful. One gets the sense that he wants to see Mr. Blinken sitting at Netanyahu’s elbow, approving or disapproving troop movements. Not workable.
Will the Arab street react against Israel’s actions to eliminate Hamas? Yes, but thus far reaction has been muted. There is no indication that the military operation is “scuttling what had been a growing Israeli rapprochement with Sunni Muslim, Arab States in the Middle East.” To the contrary.
The name of this initiative, by the way, is the Abraham Accords. The Biden Administration won’t use this term and the author follows suit. Why?
The younger generation in Saudi Arabia cares not one whit about the Palestinians. The King is old, and one can only live so long. The Jordanians and Egyptians largely despise the Palestinians. The Gulf states are terrified of Iran. The idea that Israel eliminating Hamas, an Iranian pawn, in self-defense will ultimately derail the Abraham Accords is oversold because the participant nations’ permanent interests align with the accords.
Going too far out of one’s way to accommodate Turkey is a fool’s errand. In the conception of Turkish President Erdogan, “democracy is like a streetcar. When you come to your stop you get off.” Erdogan has put that maxim into practice since his initial election in 2014. Against this, we have the only pluralistic, rule-of-law, representative democracy in the Middle East — Israel. It seems obvious to me which country we should incline toward and support. But then I’m not a diplomat.
While Erdogan, age 69, will presumably be with us for some time, Turkey is a perennial basket case, barely able to respond properly to the February 2023 earthquakes. Its large (but mediocre) military is fully occupied with regional threats, including the Kurds. Israel will not permit Turkey to assist Hamas, whether under the guise of “military deployments . . . to relieve civilian suffering in Gaza” or otherwise. Turkey tried something like this with the “Gaza freedom flotilla” in 2010 and, to put it mildly, the attempt met with no success.
Turkey is going nowhere vis-à-vis NATO because it receives an enormous security benefit by virtue of its membership. The country is NATO’s problem child, engaging in occasional provocations as by agreeing to buy from Russia the S400 air-defense system, but ultimately Turkey needs to be in NATO.
Erdogan’s populist / Islamist speeches reflect his “deep convictions”? The man is a Turkish Elmer Gantry who ramps up his rhetoric directed to Sunni Muslims as needed for political purposes. Diplomats must pay lip service to Erdogan because of his position, but the rest of us are free to regard him for what he actually is.
As for the idea that reaction against Israel’s Gaza campaign “will spur cooperative efforts in the region and abroad to isolate Israel diplomatically [and] economically . . . ,” what else is new? These “efforts” have been under way for a long time now. Hasn’t the author noticed the spread of the BDS movement? The Obama Administration’s December 2016 abstention vote in the U.N. Security Council with respect to the resolution condemning West Bank settlements? The Obama-Biden solicitude toward, and massive cash payments to, Iran? Hostility to Israel, driven by antisemitism and anti-Western ideologies (“settler colonialism,” etc.), is perennial. And since it is contrary to American interests and values, it furnishes no proper basis for U.S. policy.
U.S. troops have been stationed in Iraq and Syria for years now and can handle local threats — as the Wagner Group and other adversaries will attest. The most likely outcome of an attack on these troops is, as before, the attackers’ annihilation by American air power (AC-130, anyone?) not “regional war.” We have long risked being “drawn back in” in the Middle East by keeping troops there, but judged the risk worthwhile. What changed?
Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas, we’re told, is “undermining Israel’s broader strategic equities given the high death toll in Gaza . . . .” What greater “strategic equity” (i.e., interest) can Israel as a nation have than to prevent a recurrence of 10/7? Less comprehensive measures (the security fence, “mowing the lawn,” Iron Dome, etc.) have been tried, and failed. Left alone, Hamas will mount another attack — they’ve sworn this. A nation — any nation — faced with this kind of threat has no purpose if not to protect its citizens by eliminating the threat once and for all.
All we are being asked to do now is write checks. It is difficult to conceive of any role for U.S. forces in this conflict (other than the extraction of hostages by Special Forces) no matter how it plays out, as long as it “stays small.” Much of the aid consists of payments to U.S. military contractors. In 1940-41, America furnished materiel through Lend-Lease while the Soviets and British paid in blood. Same here.
We may not now be in a period like the 1930s, during which Britain, Europe and America slept and Churchill was a voice crying in the wilderness as Germany rearmed. I pray not. But poo-poohing Israel’s response to savagery only encourages more of the same.