JB PRITZKER’S GREAT DISPLACEMENT
By Paul Vallas
October 11th, 2026
Illinois leadership is sustaining policies that have done nothing to improve equity or affordability while swapping out middle- and upper-income families for the poor and illegal migrants.
JB Pritzker’s greatest legacy will be the acceleration of the “Great Displacement,” the demographic upheaval in which Illinois is losing scores of affluent residents through outmigration while gaining relatively poorer ones through both interstate and international migration.
This shift is largely the product of the state’s so-called progressive policies. High taxes and fees remain the primary reason Illinoisans cite for leaving, followed by failing schools, rising crime, limited economic opportunity, and expansive sanctuary measures that encourage low-income in-migration.
According to Wirepoints, Illinois continues to hemorrhage wealthy residents. Since 2000, the state has lost roughly 1.6 million people — third most in the nation, behind only California and New York. Chicago’s population, even with the recent influx of migrants, is now at its lowest level in nearly a century. Almost every county in Illinois has experienced a decline in population. Even more troubling, Illinois isn’t merely losing residents — it’s losing income. [1]
The IRS reports that in 2022 alone, 87,311 residents left Illinois, taking with them $9.9 billion in adjusted gross income. The real damage runs deeper: The outflow disproportionately includes residents in their prime earning and spending years. This brain and income drain erodes the tax base, shrinking critical property, sales, and consumption tax revenues that support state and local budgets. [2]
A detailed Wirepoints analysis of IRS migration data for 2022 shows Illinois was the nation’s second-biggest loser of households aged 26-35 earning more than $200,000. Unsurprisingly, zero-income-tax states such as Florida and Texas were the leading destinations for these upwardly mobile millennials. Illinois has been bleeding this cohort for more than a decade, but the acceleration is alarming. [3]
Wirepoints also found that in 2022, the average adjusted gross income for these departing young households was $435,000. The exodus continues among those aged 35-45 with incomes over $200,000 — another key demographic of high earners. Illinois ranks 48th nationally for losses in this income bracket. More concerning, the average AGI among this group leaving approaches $700,000. [4]
The massive exodus of higher-income taxpayers, combined with Illinois’ paltry economic growth, has resulted in Illinois’ revenue base not growing fast enough to support its spending commitments. Recent revenue gains have been driven almost entirely by policy changes — higher taxes and fees — rather than genuine economic expansion. Revenue growth from sources other than tax increases fell far below inflation.
Factoring out tax and fee hikes, organic revenue growth has averaged less than 1% annually over the past two decades, forcing lawmakers unwilling to make spending cuts to raise taxes and fees, as Governor Pritzker has elected to do again and again, raising state taxes and fees 63 times and taking an additional $86 billion from residents and businesses. Meanwhile, local property taxes are almost $9 billion higher today than when Pritzker took office. The more you raise taxes, the slower the economic growth, which in turn forces even higher taxes and fees as the cycle continues. [5]
Illinois and Chicago’s sanctuary policies, routinely framed in moral terms, now function as political instruments — devised to offset population declines and protect Democratic dominance in state and city government. Yet these policies fail to replace the lost income. A 2025 Pew Research Center report estimates Illinois hosts approximately 550,000 illegal migrants, sixth most in the nation — nearly half of whom reside in the Chicago metropolitan area. [6]
The cost of this exodus is staggering. Thus far, Illinois taxpayers have subsidized migrant support programs to the tune of roughly $3 billion statewide, including as much as $600 million by the City of Chicago. According to Chalkbeat, the number of migrant children enrolled in Chicago Public Schools this year ranges from 8,900 to as many as 17,000, depending on classification. Wirepoints estimates the additional taxpayer cost for educating these students is between $215 million and $410 million. [7]
Whether through deliberate policy or chronic mismanagement, Illinois’ leadership is steering the state toward a downward economic spiral. The wealth Illinois forfeits by driving out high-income taxpayers while attracting lower-income, publicly subsidized newcomers is enormous. IRS migration not only documents the net migration loss for Illinois, but its SOI data shows that the gap between out-migrating and in-migrating residents grew from $5,519 in 2010, peaking at $37,922 in 2022 — during the height of the border crisis and the migrant influx — before falling to $24,000 last year. [8]
Governor Pritzker’s highly publicized recent population “gains” last year were the result not of economic revival but of surging foreign migration. Prior to federal border policy loosening in 2021, Illinois averaged around 25,000 international immigrants annually; this figure soared to 113,000 by 2024. Blaming governors in Texas or Florida for sending migrants north ignores the reality that Illinois’ own sanctuary policies make it a magnet for illegal migration. [9]
Despite this influx, Chicago’s overall population remains lower than it was 100 years ago. The data reveal a painful pattern of displacement — particularly among Black residents. The city has lost more than 250,000 Black residents since 2000, mostly middle-income families. The adult Black population declined 14 percent, but the number of Black children plummeted by 47 percent. Enrollment in Chicago Public Schools is now less than half of its 1999-2000 total. [10]
Illinois’ gerrymandered political system and billionaire governor prioritize government expansion over private-sector vitality — fueling growth in bureaucracy with ever-rising state and local taxes, as Pritzker alone raised state taxes and fees 63 times, taking in nearly $86 billion annually despite receiving over $14 billion in federal COVID funding for state operations. [11]
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports show that between 2019 and 2024, Illinois added 11,542 public-sector jobs while actually losing 1,942 private-sector jobs. Public-sector jobs now constitute 13.4 percent of Illinois’ workforce. Wirepoints reports Illinois added only 15,500 net new jobs since January 2019 — the nation’s second-worst performance, as Illinois’ COVID policies made for a much slower recovery. By contrast, Florida and Texas added 1.1 million and 1.5 million jobs, respectively. [12] [13]
Meanwhile, in Chicago, Mayor Brandon Johnson continues his “tax the rich” crusade, insisting higher rates on employers will correct all the city’s ills. Johnson’s proposed levies — the employee head tax and cloud tax increase — bear no relation to a business’s ability to pay and will further drive out investment.
Chicago already has the highest combined commercial property and sales taxes in the nation. It’s also worthwhile to note that Chicago’s cloud tax, which effectively taxes technology use, is already the highest in the nation.
Ironically, while Illinois ranks first nationwide in combined state and local taxes, fines, and fees, it ranks last in economic equity (ahead of only Washington, D.C.) and 40th in racial equality in education. So much for the promised inclusive, progressive vision. In practice, it has produced only higher taxes, substantial long-term debt, persistent deficits, weak growth, limited school choice, and crime. Chicago is literally trading Black residents for illegal migrants. [14]
Illinois’ sanctuary status now ensures that dwindling resources must be spread across an expanding dependent population. The state’s Democratic leadership remains obsessed with defying federal immigration enforcement and engaging in partisan theatrics, while the actual issues driving residents out — crime, failing schools, and unsustainable taxes — go unaddressed. A survey last May of Illinois residents showed that almost half would leave the state if they had the financial means.
The Great Displacement is not a temporary trend. Progressive policies are swapping out middle- and upper-income families for the poor and illegal migrants, with disastrous consequences for the state’s taxpayers and its economy. It is a verdict on leadership. Unless Illinois’ policymakers abandon strategies that protect their political power at the expense of the state’s economic survival, this once-great state will continue its managed descent into decline.
[1] https://wirepoints.org/new-irs-migration-numbers-illinois-taxpayers-continue-to-flee-with-their-income-wirepoints/ [2] https://www.illinoispolicy.org/irs-illinois-loses-9-9b-in-income-as-87311-residents-move-out-in-2022/ [3] https://wirepoints.org/illinois-rich-young-residents-join-the-exodus-to-other-states-in-a-big-way-wirepoints/ [4] https://www.illinoispolicy.org/vallas-dont-be-fooled-by-pritzkers-boasts-of-population-gains/ [5] https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-credit-rating-pritzker-tax-hikes/ [6] https://www.mystateline.com/news/chicago-immigration-military-support/ [7] https://wirepoints.org/up-to-410-million-extra-being-spent-on-children-of-illegal-immigrants-at-chicago-public-schools-wirepoints/ [8] https://wirepoints.org/how-to-destroy-a-great-state-swap-out-the-wealthy-for-illegal-immigrants-wirepoints/ [9] https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-population-grows-in-2024-despite-56k-residents-leaving-for-other-states/ [10] https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2023/10/6/23900367/chicago-schools-choice-black-families-private-schools-education-alden-loury-column [11] https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-credit-rating-pritzker-tax-hikes/ [12] https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-at-risk-of-losing-700m-in-snap-funding-from-high-error-rate/ [13] https://wirepoints.org/what-happened-to-private-sector-job-growth-gov-pritzker-wirepoints [14] https://wallethub.com/edu/state-economies-with-most-racial-equality/75810-30-
Paul Vallas formerly ran the public school systems in Chicago, Philadelphia and the Louisiana Recovery School District. He was a candidate for Mayor of Chicago.
Comments 30
Thanks, Paul for making this so clear. JB probably wants to become POTUS just to get away from his failed legacy in IL. And the “vote blue, no matter who” will lemming their way right off the next cliff.
If you don’t vote on Nov. 3 to throw the bums out, don’t complain on the 4th. In the Chicago way, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!
So sad that people Vote for Crook’s that have destroyed the State and the City. Wake up people.
When I saw the photograph of the U-Haul trailer in the lead of the current article I could not help but muse that when our own “Augustus Gloop” Pritzker meets his own personal displacement from this earth(no threat intended), their will be no U-Haul trailer following his final cortege, he will be at last one with the common folk.
Pritzker did it with his money already. A bunch sheltered in South Dakota. A bunch sheltered in the Bahamas and the Cayman Islands.
The handling of the Floyd riots, covid policies and ridiculously high taxes for poor schools and services forced our hand in 2020. We have a slightly larger home for $15,000 less in property taxes and a police department that doesn’t allow crime to run rampant! Yes we moved to FL and love it!
The overall electorate is getting what it wants. Sadly, the public union employees and including those on public pensions and their families constitute enough votes to drive the decision making across the state governing bodies.
Things are not likely to improve any time soon as the fixed and growing fiscal demands of these people continue to grow in a slow no growth environment.
Yet, Chicago and Illinois continue to elect the same brand of “progressive” politicians.
What’s that quote misattributed to Einstein…..“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”
All agree, “Education is the answer.”
Not in Illinois. Here “Education is the problem.”
First, our politicians let the “Invest in Kids” program expire putting over 10,000 thriving kids back into Chicago’s failing schools. Next, Pritzker declines the federal $1,700 per student, $3,400 per couple cash for education. The Teacher’s Union cannot live with competition from private, charter and parochial schools. Pritzker dances to the Union’s tune. Not a pretty sight.
It is Abhorrent what the Illinois politicians have done to this state’s children. I believe Illinois spends more per pupil than any other state, and the result is our kids can’t read or do math. The teachers unions basically run the state. Then add to that the referendums these schools want passed. How much more $$ can they squeeze out of us, and when will results ever mirror the money invested in our students?
Lots of great stats. Here is the best one “Illinois added 11,542 public-sector jobs while actually losing 1,942 private-sector jobs.” Why the state needed more 11,542 public-sector jobs is beyond me. Maybe for all the illegal migrants.
Another great stat “Public-sector jobs now constitute 13.4 percent of Illinois’ workforce.” So the Democrat machine automatically gets 13.4% of the vote. No wonder they keep winning.
As long as my business remains strong, I’ll stay, but if if it doesn’t, I really don’t know what I will do.
Hey, the Indians love public sector jobs! I bet the majority of them jobs in both the State and particularly Federal jobs (e.g., IRS) are taken by the Indian Slaves!
-Nambi
Very powerful words.
Thank you,
This is one of the most thoughtful, well-written and supported explanations for our state’s ongoing decline that I have seen yet. (And this is saying a lot because everything you write is great.) Sadly, the people who most need to read it will continue to keep their heads buried in the sand – until it eventually suffocates them, along with the rest of us. It’s sad how many people just don’t get it and won’t even try to educate themselves, to the detriment of all except the power-hungry, anti-progress “progressive” politicians who got us into this mess.
I love the phrase Paul Vallas closes his excellent column with, “managed descent into decline.” It is a truly apt and accurate assessment of the tomfoolery going on in the upper echelons of Chicago, Cook County and State of Illinois government. The status-quo of today would never have been permitted under Daley the Elder, Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, Dawn Clark Netsch or Rahm Emmanuel. Sadly, none of the fools running our governmental entities today come close to the quality of leadership of these public servants. Indeed, none of the fools running our governmental entities today deserve to hold public office.
I strongly disagree. Netsch and Emanuel would have sold their souls to the DSA to stay in power.
We left 9 years ago. Best decision ever. Twice the house for what I sold. 1/3 the taxes. State give has a surplus. Well run. Some blue cities but overall much better than Illinois. Fat boy wants to be president. God help us. Feel sorry for my family that cannot move. At least no one in Crook County. Our condo downtown will go up for sale this spring. Great location but over 10 years the only thing that has gone up are condo fees and taxes. Appreciation has been zip!
This was not a surprise to anyone paying attention. I left Illinois as soon as I was able. For me, it was 2020. I moved to Nevada.
In 2007 at an Economic Club lunch, two Fortune 500 CEOs presented “Illinois is Broke”. Pensions and government spending but they focused on pensions. In the room, capitalists wanted change–big government Democrats argued it was about the Illinois Constitution. Anne Burke killed pension reform and at that point, you knew it was over.
In 2015, I went to a party at a friend’s place. It was a pretty chi chi party with a lot of big Chicago names you would know. The conversation wasn’t about the city; it was about where you were going to be moving. Palm Beach, Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada, Texas, or the Carolinas.
They are decreasing the net worth on the estate tax but the next trick up their sleeve will be taxing private pensions. Currently, 0% if you are over 59.5, they will hit that with an income tax. Pritzker got rid of no taxes on tips, and he eliminated the ability for investors to take advantage of QSBS.
BINGO! The final paragraph is the sad but very true reality of Ill. The failings of communism/socialism inflicted on a once great state by a self-interested billionaire governor with no grounding in the reality of the common folk.
Everyone knew Illinois has been losing people, but as you point out, it’s even losing wealth faster. Excellent point!
Illinois, despite being blessed by ideal location and natural resources, like fertile land, is essentially dead meat. As others report, they keep electing the same people over and over again. Of course, one of the main reasons for this is the symbiotic relationship between the state’s public pensioners and the Democratic Party.
There is no hope for the state other than bankruptcy. Glad I’m no longer a part of it.
Most of our family still resides in Illinois, none in Chicago.
We moved to the Volunteer State in 1992.
We had a 95,000$ dollar house on a 1/4 acre in Joliet and the taxes were over 3000$ in 1992.
We now live on an .97 acre in a 400,000$ house,( bought it in 92 for 99,000$) in the City of Murfreesboro.
Low crime, good schools but average pizza🤷🏼♂️
Our property taxes will be about 2300$ this year.
I miss the old Chicago back in the 60’s and early 70’s( we grew up on the Southwest side near Midway) in a nice neighborhood.
So sad what has happened to Illinois and so sad what has happened to the Democrat party ( the party of hate and death)
I do thank God for the wonderful time we grew up in and I pray our descendants somehow turn this evil around.
Mr. Vallas! Why don’t you run for Governor, if it’s not too late. Yes its too late now. For next time, I think you can run as an Independent. Look at the candidate that the Republicans came up with. There is no one in the party to talk this big loser Darren Bailey out of this race considering how he screwed up his good chances to win against Pritzker, in the last election.
Couple of times you tried Chicago and the CTU shot you down. So your only hope to correct and save Illinois and Chicago is through the State Mansion.
-Nambi
Pritzker could not possibly care less for Illinois. He is about one thing, the Hamptons.
He’s just too big, to fail. But fail he does
Thoughtful and well written, Paul.
I wonder what the media reaction would be if the Republicans were responsible for the states mess as opposed to Democrats?
The Trib and the Times would have banner headlines demanding audits, impeachments and a plethora of investigations of the entire Republican party.
Yet even a spoiled little rich kid can’t really get in trouble from the media for yanking toilets out of a house to save on taxes.
The voters that continually vote D, will one day rue the day they did…but then it will be too late.
I moved from IL in 1995…I smile when I receive my $1,800 Property tax bill…it was over 5k in Buffalo Grove!
A suggestion to you sane people still living in IL…a 4 letter word so excuse me…MOVE.
Our property tax went from $17k five years ago, to $38k with this year’s reassessment. Ours is an average house, with no improvements in the last 25 years. Ridiculous. Problems stem from uncontrolled budgets. If the CPS was a business, they would be closed due mismanagement of funds and bankruptcy. Further, part of my issue is that the property taxes are not enforced equally. If our house is assessed as X, then a house assessed as half our value should be taxed at 50% of what we pay. It is not. Neither in our own town or throughout Cook County. The guy who came to create a valuation (to protest our taxes) stated that this area is simply being targeted.
We are both over 65 and have paid our dues. Time to leave. Pritzker continues to tax his way to pay for the mistakes and uncontrolled budgets. We can only take so much. Done.
It will have to burn to the ground for the policy problems to be recognized…by those who refuse to see where this is heading. We moved out and return for visits. Those visits confirm we are in a better place.
I knew that Putzker took the jab and lost all the blubber all hope was gone in getting justice for the four dead beluga whales.
Chicago, where Beluga whales go to die: aquatic mammal body count just went up to number four in the Second City. Where are our the bleeding hearts of PETA? Not around when Demorats are the culprits.
Thanks Paul G Vallas and editor John Kass for publishing the truth about Illinois’ gloomy future.
It’s fitting Paul’s column arrives on Columbus Day weekend.
Many of our grandparents emigrated legally to the City of Big Shoulders from places that exploited the poor. Chicago welcomed Italians and Greeks to the Near West Side; and refugees from Stalin’s genocide to Ukrainian Village.
Bronzeville embraced Black families fleeing Jim Crow segregation.
But where are those residents supposed to live, now that Pritzker flooded the entire metro area with drug addicts, sex offenders and street gangs ?
Illinoisans are departing for the same reason refugees escaped Germany, Italy, Spain and other countries in the 1930s.They fear for their lives.
One statistic not available to Paul Vallas is how many out-of-state university students reject Illinois as a choice for enrollment.
After watching Pritzker ignore the grieving parents of 18-year-old Loyola student Sheridan Gorman for 7 months, we can assume very few young people see a future in Chicago colleges.
The one thing no one brings up about the public unions is as soon as they retire they take their pension with them to a lower taxing state. There should be a way to make them take a haircut if they retire to another state.