By Greg Ganske,

June 26^th,2026

What do the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), the National Taxpayers Union, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the conservative Cato Institute and Heritage Foundation, the liberal Manhattan Institute and Brookings Institution, financial and markets analysts J.P. Morgan Private Bank and the Federal Reserve system all have in common?

They all warn us of the dangers of our burgeoning national debt.

They all must feel like the Trojan prophetess Cassandra who was cursed to foresee future disasters and to have her predictions ignored and dismissed. Cassandra was the most beautiful daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba of Troy. Smitten by her beauty, the god Apollo offered her the power of prophecy in exchange for her romantic favors.

She accepted the gift but refused Apollo’s advances. So, he spat into her mouth, ordaining that no one would ever believe her words. For instance, she predicted a catastrophic war over Helen and was dismissed. She warned of armed warriors inside the massive wooden horse the Greeks left outside Troy’s gates and was ignored.

All these respected organizations from diverse viewpoints warn of the danger of the rising national debt. As the national debt surpasses $39 trillion, these organizations repeatedly publish research, issue warnings, and propose fiscal metrics to address the long-term unsustainability of our current course and eventual disaster. To mix metaphors with the Bible, they must feel like Cassandra crying in the wilderness. This year alone the Treasury Department is projecting a budget deficit of at least $2 trillion, up to $300 billion just since February.

In 1995, when I went to Congress, the national debt was $4.45 trillion. Over the next four years of spending restraint, Congress and President Bill Clinton reduced the public held debt by approximately $400 billion, the only time since World War II that this part of the debt was actually reduced. The gross debt did increase in this period if one counts the Treasury borrowing off-budget surpluses from government trust funds like Social Security.

The debt-to-GDP ratio has increased in the past 30 years, from 46% to 120%; the average debt per household has risen from $52,000 to $289,000. It is not rocket science: The key drivers of the increase in debt is government spending outstripping tax revenues, especially driven by mandatory spending in programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. There were also severe spikes in crisis spending during the 2008 Great Recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic response, which alone added $4.5 trillion in a single year.

This debt is not without cost. The U.S government now pays roughly $3 billion a day just to service the interest on the national debt. This makes interest payments on the debt one of the biggest segments of federal spending. Total interest payments are now over $1 trillion annually, surpassing federal spending on both national defense and Medicare. Foreign investors hold about 30% of total public held debt meaning these payments are not available for investment in this country.

What does this mean to the average citizen and for the government?

The rising net interest costs create a “debt doom loop” where the government borrows just to pay the interest on previous debt. The trillions spent on interest divert tax dollars away from crucial infrastructure, healthcare, education, and research.

Increased government borrowing consumes a higher percentage of available savings, leaving less for private enterprises. Less capital means businesses invest less in newer technologies, factories, and equipment. With lower productivity, paychecks stagnate. Higher interest rates make it harder to buy a home and everyday goods become more expensive. If there are future crises, a country’s capacity to borrow is reduced.

The big fear is that if the debt becomes too high, international investors could lose confidence in the bonds, which then forces spikes in higher interest rates with a vicious upward spiral until the bond market collapses. The central bank faces political pressure to monetize the debt by printing more money. This erodes trust in the dollar and devalues the currency. (Even without this type of crash, it takes $40 in today’s dollars to buy what $1 did in 1900.)

In 1995 through 2000, the budget was balanced when we lowered spending by shaving about 1% off an increase in spending and we had a good economy. To address the current deficit and stabilize the national debt, we will need the same spending discipline and also to increase tax revenue. Raising taxes is as popular as pulling teeth, and reducing the rate of growth of spending is equally unpopular.

However, without a combination of spending restraint and increased revenue, the warnings by the organizations cited previously will continue to be ignored like Cassandra’s. The options for increasing revenue include expanding payroll taxes, income surtaxes, and reforming corporate tax rates, among others.

Reducing mandatory spending will be necessary. Over 60% of federal spending goes toward mandatory programs. It will be impossible to balance the budget without addressing the entitlements. Options will include raising the eligibility age for Social Security and medicare to match increasing lifespans, addressing military procurement, reducing foreign defense footprints, and utilizing AI to reduce federal employment such as will happen in the private sector.

A larger economy increases tax revenues. This means that tax policy should promote domestic capital investment and workforce participation. Streamlining domestic energy production and business deregulation would help build the economy. Finally, the government must do a better job of preventing the type of corruption and scandals in government spending, which we are seeing reported almost daily. It is estimated that 10% or more of government spending is waste and fraud.

Had the Trojans sent Helen packing back to Menelaus they could have avoided their destruction. Will someday in the future it be said of us, “If only the Democrats and Republicans had worked together to avoid the Great Fiscal Crisis, they could have saved their country. If only they had listened to their think tanks’ and fiscal organizations’ warnings instead of ignoring them like Cassandra’s warnings were ignored in a Greek tragedy.”

We won’t be able to say that we haven’t been warned.

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Dr. Greg Ganske is a retired plastic surgeon who cared for women with breast cancer, children with cleft lips, farmers with hand injuries, trauma and burn patients. He served Iowa in the U.S. Congress from 1995 to 2003.