Just A Couple of Inches Can Change History
By Cory Franklin
August 9th, 2024
A matter of mere inches can change the course of history irrevocably. The ultimate example may be when 20-year-old would-be assassin Thomas Michael Crooks barely missed killing Donald Trump on live television in Butler, Pennsylvania in July. America should be profoundly grateful because by just a couple of inches, the country was saved, not in any “We love Donald Trump and still have the Great Man” sense – the gratitude should exist whether one thinks Donald Trump is the Savior or the Devil incarnate. Either way, the U.S. narrowly avoided a terrible fate.
Consider: given the utter incompetence of the Secret Service in protecting Trump, had his murder been televised and seen by millions – no Zapruder film necessary – it would have guaranteed conspiracy theories about Government collaboration for decades. The country would have been torn apart more than any time since the Civil War.
It seems inconceivable that any agency, but especially the Secret Service, could be so inept. The roof of the building the shooter was on was deemed to be outside the perimeter of the target area, even though it was clearly within shooting range and had an unobstructed view of the target. No agent was placed on the roof of the building purportedly because of its slope, even though agents were on other sloped roofs. There were local law enforcement officers inside the building as the shooter scaled the wall to the roof. The Secret Service, ultimately responsible, left the details of the actual shooting site to local police, then blamed local police after the fact.
Crooks sent a drone over the area, presumably to locate the optimal perch to shoot from. An hour before the shooting, he was casing the area with a rangefinder and was identified as a potential threat. The Secret Service was aware of his presence, a picture of him was circulating, but he was lost during a subsequent ground search. A number of people actually saw the shooter with a weapon as he crawled across the roof and notified law enforcement at least a minute and a half before he started firing. Despite the obvious threat, no one on the Secret Service took the initiative to pull Trump from the stage. He began to speak even as the elusive shooter sighted his weapon – with law enforcement snipers watching and waiting. All of this is a product of incompetence.
In simple terms, a young man with murderous intent and reported to be a middling shot in high school was able to smuggle a weapon in plain sight, evade professional law enforcement and the Secret Service for a significant period of time, and manage to squeeze off eight shots. Trump avoided the kill shot by inches, only because turned his head at the last minute. He was grazed, another man was killed, and two others were wounded before the Secret Service immediately “silenced” the shooter with extreme prejudice.
It would be charitable to call the Secret Service errors amateurish. The final straw may have been the Director of the Agency’s admission they had no radio recordings of the episode. Yet she would not fall on her sword, and it took the threat of impeachment to force her Bidenesque resignation (I won’t, I won’t, I won’t, OK I will). Simply one more case of US government fecklessness.
But now imagine a counternarrative – an alternative history – one that did not become reality only by the narrowest of margins. Trump does not turn his head at the last moment and is murdered as millions watch. With the template of the JFK assassination, where there was far less damning evidence than here, millions would believe a conspiracy involving the government occurred.
Had Trump been killed, at a minimum half the country would never believe the Secret Service could be so incompetent as to let a kid with a rifle get so close and fire shots unimpeded. Those people, and perhaps millions more, would be convinced the Secret Service was complicit in the assassination.
It would follow quite naturally they would also believe that the political party in charge – in this case, the Democrats – planned, ordered or simply approved of the operation to rid America of this troublesome candidate.
It is difficult to conceive of the damage this would do to the fabric of the country. Quite possibly, violence would ensue. Lest this sound impossible, the feminist author and journalist Naomi Wolf, who is not averse to tossing out conspiracy theories anyway, has already written that she believes the Secret Service, under the aegis of the president’s wife, was involved in the assassination attempt. Wolf did not even require the shooter to succeed in making her allegation. However farfetched that sounds today, if millions witnessed Trump hit in the head with a bullet, it wouldn’t sound so improbable.
And of course, in any successful conspiracy the assassin cannot remain alive – the plot requires he be killed. Silencing him is essential. Contrast the JFK assassination with the attempted Ronald Reagan assassination. The reason there are so many JFK conspiracy theories is that Lee Harvey Oswald was killed by Jack Ruby. Had Oswald survived and made it to trial, most of the questions about what happened would have been answered and there would be fewer conspiracy theories today. (This was another instance of history being changed by a minuscule fraction in the time-space continuum. Ruby, with no idea where Oswald was right before he shot him, had less than two minutes to appear coincidentally in just the right spot. If Ruby’s errand at a nearby Western Union had been delayed by even those two minutes, Oswald would have been safely transported out of the jail.)
In 1981, when John Hinckley shot Ronald Reagan, the circumstances were remarkably similar to the recent Trump circumstance. A deranged young man was able to get close to his target, fired three shots and missed killing the President by inches. Back then, the newly elected Reagan was a divisive, partisan figure and the world situation was unstable; an assassination attempt was not wild fantasy. But the truth was more prosaic and apolitical: the would-be assassin turned out not to be a foreign actor nor a domestic terrorist; it was 25-year-old John Hinckley trying to impress the actress, Jodie Foster. It sounds unbelievable if you don’t know the facts.
Why were there no grand conspiracy theories? Simply because the Secret Service took Hinckley alive, and the facts quickly became apparent.
In the Trump assassination attempt, although the Secret Service was aware of Crooks’s location and his weapon, they did not kill him until after he fired at Trump. A conspiracy theorist would point out the convenience of the Secret Service killing the shooter after the successful attempt – not before, when they clearly had the chance.
Given everything, we know, there was no conspiracy in the attempted assassination of Trump. The government was simply bunglers, and the most likely motive right now is that Thomas Michael Crooks was a disturbed young man who likely wanted to commit a spectacular crime knowing he could not escape and would die of “suicide by cop.”
It is far easier to come to those conclusions dispassionately because a bullet missed being fatal by inches. Lady Luck saved America from unrest and possibly insurrection by people who would have posited a conspiracy after their candidate was murdered. Regardless of political persuasion, Americans should be thankful that, but for a couple of inches, history might be quite different. Because now it is nothing more than a thought experiment.
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Cory Franklin was director of medical intensive care at Cook County Hospital in Chicago for more than 25 years. An editorial board contributor to the Chicago Tribune op-ed page, he writes freelance medical and non-medical articles. His work has also appeared in the New York Times, Jerusalem Post, Chicago Sun-Times, New York Post, Guardian, Washington Post and has been excerpted in the New York Review of Books. Cory was also Harrison Ford’s technical adviser and one of the role models for the character Ford played in the 1993 movie, “The Fugitive.” His YouTube podcast “Rememberingthepassed” has received 900,000 hits to date. He published “Chicago Flashbulbs” in 2013, “Cook County ICU: 30 Years of Unforgettable Patients and Odd Cases” in 2015, and most recently coauthored, A Guide to Writing College Admission Essays: Practical Advice for Students and Parents in 2021. Dr. Franklin is the author of the forthcoming book, “The COVID Diaries 2020-2024: Anatomy of a Contagion As It Happened.”
Comments 40
Thank you for a very insightful essay.
We came “this close” to anarchy by your very believable thesis.
I really do not believe it was ineptitude. When Plan A failed, the USSS went to Plan B.
Mr. Franklin, your article in thoughtful and insightful, making me reconsider a few things. However I have to agree with Mr. Lisicich. Given the facts that are out there and the attitude of the USSS at the hearings, this whole thing stinks to high heaven and I believe certain actions were intentional on the SS part. They hoped for the worst. By Divine intervention it didn’t happen and they eliminated a link that could have shone more light on the plot.
I don’t know whether it was “Lady Luck” or Divine Intervention, but I’m eternally grateful.
Great article Mr. Franklin! However, I have not been convinced there was not a conspiracy to assassinate Trump because the Secret Service are not being open about their handling of the event. Why wouldn’t they have used the drones offered by the Police and had the same radio frequency to communicate? It was chaos when Crooks was spotted on the roof with a rifle but the Secret Service couldn’t have delayed Trump going up to the podium for what reason?
I agree with Ms. Catlin about the actual results. The USSS was incompetent & lazy. They were out worked, not out smarted by a 20 yr. old misfit. I also agree with Mr. Franklin and his alternate ending scenario. Personally, it would have been hard to convince me that had the former president actually been killed that it wasn’t a conspiracy.
The attempt did not have to result in a fatality for half the country to know the score.
I wholeheartedly agree with you!
Gross incompetence or part of the plan? Maybe a combination of both.
Re: JFK. I highly recommend “The Smoking Gun” documentary about the JFK assassination. With the way that event has been scrutinized so thoroughly for more than 50 years, Im surprised there’s not more buzz about this theory that a Secret Service agent in the car behind the motorcade inadvertently fired the shot that killed JFK.
They covered that up too. I doubt we’re ever going to know the real story.
With avalanche of constructed miseries heaped upon President Trump by the orchestrated oligarchs from the day he won the election to that day in Pennsylvania, it is more than tough not to imagine conspiracy. At the same time, life is prosaic, dull and tediously happenstance.
Qui scit ?
I 100% agree that “Regardless of political persuasion, Americans should be thankful that, but for a couple of inches, history might be quite different.” And I’m not a fan of any of the current or past politicians in this presidential race.
I disagree with you Dr Franklin. Way too many “coincidences” for it not to be an inside job. I also do not believe there is this amount of total ineptitude and followed by crickets. Instead of saying everyone is a theorist, maybe it’s time to start looking at those possible. My leading candidate would be Merrick Garland. Case in Florida thrown out, Supreme Court immunity ruling, Jack Smith. Trump goes away, all that targeted prosecution goes away and the heat related to it. Then the paper trail never leads back to the culprit. So, really, who is behind all of this ? No way Biden – Joe or Jill. But Soros? Obama ? Gates ?
“Conspiracy Theories” be damned, it’s time the curtain gets pulled back to reveal who Oz really is. We’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto. We’re not in Kansas.
Excellent Comment Mr. Macko!!
I certainly do not see any proof to the contrary! My first thought had been: “Well, they finally went and did it. I’m surprised it hasn’t happened any earlier.”
For God’s sake — look who is in charge of that Swamp??? I would not be so fast to eliminate Jill or anyone else like Soros, Obama, the Secret Service the FBI etc. Unfortunately, I will never be able to get the truth with these Socialists/Communists erasing every truth of this Republic, which sadly, is no more.
Why do people want to always see the glass half-full instead of trying to face life realistically? Is it really easier to live one’s life with your head stuck in the sand?
Thank you for your comment!
We certainly appreciate your opinions about the Trump shooting. You make some valid points. If this were a random set of coincidences that enabled a misfit to get eight shots at Trump was sheer ineptitude then I’ll continue to buy Lotto tickets. I probably have a better chance of winning the Powerball. Trump is marked by both sides just like he was the during his first term. He’s the original guy nobody sent. The people responsible should be charged criminally , the same as an airline pilot would be charged for showing up drunk to work. That head of the Service refused to resign because she knew she had the power of the Deep State behind her. Had they moved to indict her she would have lawyered up pending a trial. As you stated had Oswald survived he might have answered many, many questions. If she was looking at jail time so would she. The fact nothing is happening with the attempted murder of Trump tells you where this “investigation ” stands. The government has released no facts, social media or anything else about the shooting tells you where our country stands….
Again Dr Franklin, excellent column. RFJ Jr had no protection, Trump had a bare bones and incompetent detail. Why no common radio frequency. Today that is SOP. Agencies with mutual aid/overlapping coverage areas do in my experience have at least one and possibly two frequencies they share.
I wonder WHY the USSS sniper didn’t take the shot when he was spotted. On the TV coverage you can see them concentrating on the threat intently looking thru Binoculars and a scope. Even a wound shot that missed would have disrupted his setup. The local cop deserves a medal for causing Crooks to reset. No audio, of course. Deniability on the part of USSS. Did the Director of the USSS want to keep her job after the election. It is known that she and Jill were buddies. Jill in same area same day. FLOTUS deserved a nice fat detail so agents were not available for Trump.
The chaos that could have ensued had the bullet struck home is unthinkable. If Trump was dead the palace coup at 1600 wound not have been as necessary. Who is behind the curtain making the puppets dance???
Agree. The consequences would’ve been ugly.
And the truth is almost certainly prosaic bungling.
Let’s hope the Secret Service ups its game and we never hear about the ones it prevented.
Given their track record over the last eight years, I absolutely believe the slimy Democrats were involved in the assassination attempt.They are more than willing to resort to even murder to stay in control of this country.
Go ahead chumbulones vote them in again.
Leave a large enough vaccuum, and evil will occur. Secret Service also had any number of the 10 million unvetted aliens recently arrived to consider, but didn’t. Incompetence is as deadly as malignancy.
Why were the incompetent armed officers from Parkland and Uvalde prosecuted- yet none from Butler?
“It seems inconceivable that any agency, but especially the Secret Service, could be so inept.”
One coincidence is a coincidence. A second coincidence makes two coincidences. Three coincidences make for “enemy action”.
I have been trying to avoid seeming like a conspiracy theorist, but given that no one in government now seems to care about the assassination attempt, I can only conclude that it was purposeful incompetence as part of a larger plan. I don’t much like Trump, but he isn’t as scary as the mechanism that replaces Biden without a vote, attempts assassination of the opposition (and then shrugs at how it happened), and tells me that the lackluster VP is suddenly energetic, accomplished, and amazing. Puppet shows aren’t as entertaining when you can see all of the strings.
I’m with you Mr. Reed…seems like this story is already buried. No new congressional hearings in the near future. Just the bland acceptance of the stonewalling, unproductive, no concrete answer, vague promises by the committees. It’s “lets move on folks, nothing to see here” time. More of the same congressional committee blather with no action taken and no satisfaction given.
Maybe the simplest of conspiracies. Knowing there are serious assassination threats, assign the most inept to guard him just giving the effective appearance of protection and let the bad guys do their work. Heck, the surprise may have been that it was a local yocal and not the Iranian they were expecting.
Thank you for an excellent column.
Various impeachments. Various law suits.
Trials and guilty verdicts. A sentence still out there in one trial. A Jack Smith appointment of a special council. Was this legal? I could go on and on . I’m to believe there is no there there? My first thought after witnessing the attempt on the former president’s life was holy shit I can’t believe they did this. I’ve had discussions with friends long before this incident where we have agreed there would be an attempt on his life.
In the aftermath toxic social media folks posted such things as too bad the shooter missed. Next time don’t miss. Then there is the glaring fact that the left ever ready to scream gun control was silent. Let’s not forget also the liberal news could not confirm if Trump was shot and an investigation would need to be done. Huh? There was an immediate cry to turn down the rhetoric. How did that work out? One has a choice either feed the fire or put it out.
Thank you Dr. Franklin. Agree, we would not be in a good space had the bullet killed Trump. WRT conspiracy, all you need to see is the reactions of Democrats afterwards. Killing Trump is a badge of honor for any given lunatic. Look at how the far left behaved after the “not Civil War whatsoever”, reconstruction. Redestruction actually.
The good news being how hard the country worked to heal. Lincoln’s finest legacy. Gives me hope we can heal! Yes, did we EVER dodge a bullet 🙂
Thomas *Matthew Crooks.
Cory, it seems slightly irresponsible not to mention the arrest of Asif Merchant on July 12, 2024, the day before the Trump rally in Butler. I am not ruling out anything anymore. The Pakistani man, after all, did have ties to Iran, and his presence in this country is quite irregular (under the normal rule of law principles). The murder for hire charges he’s been charged with are right out of the Iranian playbook. We all know there is an Iranian plot to kill Trump. But I’m sure it’s nothing, just a coincidence! Needless to say, I thought I’d mention it since you didn’t just to close the loop on conspiracy theories and historical events decided by mere inches.
Yes, too many “coincidences.” Looks like the Deep State is willing to do ANYTHING to keep Trump out of the White House. Isn’t that what they all keep saying? All they need to do is get the actors to the right place at the right time, and the rest is history. All the while they facilitate the assassination attempt by ignoring protocols. They were hoping for a different outcome, but thank God that didn’t happen. It is still a murder scene, but I guess Cory was just collateral damage. God help us!
Thank you Dr. Franklin.
Calling the government bunglers is too nice a term. I am of an opinion that this was simply the degeneration of professionalism on the part of the Secret Service and FBI. These two services have become politicized with agents openly showing their distain for certain members they are tasked to protect. Once that rot of political distain sets in, it degrades the level of professionalism that those two services should uphold. In the past, I am sure, the services took to heart the failure and made it a very serious lessons learned, never ever let it happen again. Today, it CYA and so what?
nope. government approved.
Excellent as always Doc Franklin.
that slight turn by the president avoided a civil war.
A great essay. Also, note that the Secret Service had “increased” Trump security prior to this incident because of an ongoing Pakistani/Iranian plot. I don’t think incompetence is going to cover the reality of the attempt.
Doesn’t need to be a conspiracy. Just incompetents. The government doesn’t like outsides they can’t control.
Well I am certainly not a conspiracy theorist. And I have always assumed incompetence before looking for conspiracy. Having worked in the federal bureaucracy for many years, that principle has been borne out on many occasions. But the question for many is when does incompetence cross over to conspiracy? Consider Dr. Franklin’s own words: “given the utter incompetence of the Secret Service in protecting Trump … It seems inconceivable that any agency, but especially the Secret Service, could be so inept.” Exactly. It seems inconceivable that any agency … could be so inept. And therefore since such incompetence is inconceivable one does not need a dead Trump to cross over into the domain of conspiracy. Given the sheer inconceivable incompetence of the USSS (as admitted by Dr. Franklin), conspiracy seems in fact quite plausible.
Exactly right, Bruce.
Cory,
Looks like we’re witnessing the net effects of DEI hiring practices within the Secret Service – among other agencies – that is charged with protecting our presidents, veeps, nominees and pols. Hire the agents based on race, skin color rather than abilities and mental accuity. Karma can really be a bitch at times…no?
Only when that karma negatively affects those on your side of the aisle.
Thank you Mr. Franklin-
This is the most intelligent article I have yet read on JohnKassNews.com. I believe your analysis and insights are spot on. It is indeed terrifying to speculate about what might have happened if not for those couple of inches!
It’s so refreshing to read a piece devoid of all the unproductive hatred I normally see on this site.
You made your points with no references to the Marxists, demonic satanists, leftist Deep State operatives, Deep State’s next Meat Puppet, Deep State three-headed dog, hateful flesh-eating castrating female hags, slimy bucketful of the evil minions who are destroying our Republic, Obama and his elitist cabal, the idiot mop-head press lady, and on and on and on . . .
Thank You, Thank you, Thank you
Watching Kimberly Cheatle, now the former Director of the Secret Service, testify before a Congressional committee reminded me of Lois Lerner, the former IRS executive in charge of the IRS’ tax-exempt division. Lerner had been called to testify because there were credible claims of conservative non-profits having their tax-exempt applications delayed for an excessive amount of time. Like Cheatle, Lerner provided no information to the committee investigating her IRS division. Anyone who thinks we need more and bigger government should review how Cheatle and Lerner, two bureaucrats cut from the same cloth, stonewalled Congressional investigations.
“The reason there are so many JFK conspiracy theories” is because the official version of events doesn’t add up. The Warren Commission report was a whitewash: multiple witnesses were not called to testify, evidence was lost or destroyed, etc.. And speaking of Jack Ruby: journalist Dorothy Kilgallen (a friend of JFK’s) covered Ruby’s trial, taking copious notes. She died of an “accidental overdose” in her Manhattan townhouse on 08 N0v 65. Her notes on the trial (conveniently) disappeared.
From what we know about the assassination attempt on DJT, the LEAST likely scenario is that a 20 year old “misfit”, who had no social media (!), successfully exploited the “utter incompetence” of the USSS, enabling him to remain in an area with a significant law enforcement presence, gain rooftop access, and ultimately fire 8 rounds from a rifle, killing one and wounding 3 others (including the former President), before being neutralized. It amazes me that in this incident, like many other attempts on the lives of prominent people (JFK, Pope John Paul II, President Reagan), a “lone nut” can somehow outmaneuver highly trained security personnel.